Early Action Critical to Prevent a Human Bird Flu Outbreak, Study Warns

More than two million turkeys have been culled in the US since late August as avian influenza (H5N1) continues to spread, renewing concerns about its pandemic potential. While human infections remain rare, the virus has caused nearly 1,000 reported human cases globally since 2003, with a high fatality rate. In the US, H5N1 has infected millions of birds, spread to dairy herds, and sickened dozens of people, mainly farmworkers.

New modelling research by Indian scientists suggests that if H5N1 adapts to sustained human-to-human transmission, the window to contain an outbreak would be extremely narrow. Using computer simulations based on a poultry-producing village in India, the study found that rapid isolation of cases and quarantine of close contacts—ideally when only two cases are detected—could prevent wider spread. Delays beyond 10 cases make containment unlikely, highlighting the importance of early surveillance, swift response, and preparedness to avert a global health crisis.

30-12-2025