Natural Climate Feedbacks Could Intensify Global Warming by Up to 30%

Natural changes triggered by rising global temperatures could amplify future warming by as much as 30%, according to new research examining the interaction between climate change and the planet’s ecosystems.

The study, published in Environmental Research Letters, focuses on climate feedback processes involving permafrost, wetlands, freshwater systems and wildfires. As temperatures rise, these natural systems can release additional carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere, adding to greenhouse gases produced directly by human activity.

Thawing permafrost is one major concern because previously frozen soils contain large quantities of stored carbon. Warming lakes and wetlands can also increase greenhouse-gas emissions, while hotter and drier conditions can contribute to more severe wildfires, releasing carbon stored in forests and soils.

Researchers estimate that emissions from these natural sources could increase overall global warming by approximately 20% to 30% by the end of the century. Depending on how rapidly countries reduce emissions, the feedback effect could add an estimated 0.2°C to 0.4°C to average global temperatures.

Scientists warn that these additional emissions are not adequately represented in some of the climate projections currently used to guide policy. This could mean that future warming is being underestimated and the remaining carbon budget overestimated.

The study does not suggest that runaway warming is inevitable. Instead, researchers emphasise that rapidly reducing fossil-fuel emissions can limit both human-caused warming and the additional emissions generated by natural feedback processes.

The findings add urgency to global efforts to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, particularly as rising temperatures increase the possibility of triggering further changes within natural climate systems.

10-09-2026